Well, there’s never a dull moment round these parts! The last week has seen Syria suspended from the Arab League; not that that will have any
affect whatsoever on the ongoing mass murder of their own citizens, a fact that seems to have barely caused a ripple in the corridors of international power. Imagine if Israel had been responsible for killing a couple of its own citizens. Every organization you had ever heard of and many you never thought existed would be picketing embassies, Marks & Spencer’s, demonstrating in Trafalgar Square and so forth, but when its Arabs killing their own nobody seems to care very much. It’s a disgrace, the indolence of the world community in letting Assad run riot against his own down-trodden people.
Then there’s our old friends Iran, who got a bit of smack on the wrists for the IAEA who confirmed what we have all known for donkey’s years, that the Islamic Republic is indeed doing everything possible to acquire a
nuclear weapon. And nothing would give those in power in Tehran more pleasure than despatching in an easterly direction a shiny new warhead with a destination address of dear old Tel Aviv.
Did you notice the news reports over the last few days about some serious shenanigans at a ‘military depot’ near Tehran where apparently 17 people
were killed. It was reported to have been an unidentified explosion at a base of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps. Oh dear, I wonder how that could have happened? I suspect someone forget the no smoking rule and absent mindedly threw a fag end over a chicken wire fence that just happened to contain some materials that could have caused serious damage had they been despatched via aerial delivery to an undisclosed location with a Jewish-sounding address! Pure conjecture of course, but it was interesting that today’s Israeli daily Yediot Aharanot reports that sources in the US believe it was caused by an Iranian militant group who, the Americans claim, are working in cooperation with sources in Israel.
Listening to an Iranian opposition spokesman on Al Jazeera last week I was impressed by his argument that the only way to avoid war in the region is for Israel and others with a lot to lose in the area adjacent to Iran, (such as the Gulf States, Jordan, and even Iraq), to do all they can to help support those attempting to bring down the despicable regime from within. He stressed that most educated Iranians oppose Ahmedinejad’s plans and should the regime be overthrown the moderate Iranian voices would immediately cease funding the likes of Hizbollah and Islamic Jihad and end the development of nuclear facilities designed for military purposes.
Earlier this afternoon I listened to a debate hosted by the excellent Gavin Esler on BBC World in which a number of Arab academics form the Arabian Gulf discussed the ‘Iranian problem’. It was surprising, but very reassuring to learn that the Gulf States are not a great deal less concerned by Iran’s development of nuclear weapons than we are here in Israel. They pointed out that the site of the nuclear development is on a well known fault line that is prone to seismic activity and where there is a history of minor and major earthquakes over the years.
They Arab academics expressed fears that even a minor quake could release radioactivity into the Gulf and cause havoc to the populations in the area. Interestingly, when asked if they felt Israel was being melodramatic in suggesting they could be the potential target of a nuclear attack, three out of four suggested that there were serious grounds for Israel to be concerned and that if they were in Israel’s position it would be an incredibly
tough decision to make as to whether to sit back and wait - letting Iran
continue to close in on the completion of a nuclear warhead – or take unilateral action to neutralise the threat knowing full well that they could
stir up potential havoc in the region?
One point that was made though, and was that in the area adjacent to Iran genuine friends of the Islamic republic are rather thin on the ground these days. The Gulf States can’t stand the Iranian regime, Prime Minister Erdogan of Turkey, who reached out to Iran a couple of years ago and promoted the idea of an Iranian/Turkish/Syrian axis, has realised he made a major boo-boo, with his two so-called ‘new best friends’ both now being returned to international pariah status. Turkey has hurriedly distanced itself from its foreign policy faux pas and has gone very quiet on that subject. Assad in Syria is too busy killing his own people and trying to save his own rather long neck – am I the only person who sees a similarity between Assad and ‘Beaker’ from ‘The Muppet Show’ – and Iraq has no more an uneasy calm at the moment with the nation who not long ago killed more than a million of their own people.
The discussion ended with general consensus amongst the panellists, (who came from various different positions within the political spectrum in the Arab world), that Iran is in a bit of a pickle. Their only real trump card is oil and their control of the Straits of Hormuz, and the only way they might fight back against more sanctions is to impose a military blockade of the Straits, and lock down the transfer of more than 40% of the world’s oil to customers around the globe, thereby forcing up the price to an unbearable $200 a
barrel, a measure which might persuade European and American politicians to ease any sanctions they might impose.
It’s all a rather deadly game of political/nuclear poker, with the trump cards (do they have them in poker, I don’t play that game) being the potential intervention of either or both of Russia and China, who thus far have refused to condemn Iran too harshly, but who might change their tune if it affects their economic interests and creates a security headache for them.
I know I’m hardly Andrew Marr on John Simpson, but I hope this slight insight into the way things are being discussed in this part of the world
is of some interest to you.
affect whatsoever on the ongoing mass murder of their own citizens, a fact that seems to have barely caused a ripple in the corridors of international power. Imagine if Israel had been responsible for killing a couple of its own citizens. Every organization you had ever heard of and many you never thought existed would be picketing embassies, Marks & Spencer’s, demonstrating in Trafalgar Square and so forth, but when its Arabs killing their own nobody seems to care very much. It’s a disgrace, the indolence of the world community in letting Assad run riot against his own down-trodden people.
Then there’s our old friends Iran, who got a bit of smack on the wrists for the IAEA who confirmed what we have all known for donkey’s years, that the Islamic Republic is indeed doing everything possible to acquire a
nuclear weapon. And nothing would give those in power in Tehran more pleasure than despatching in an easterly direction a shiny new warhead with a destination address of dear old Tel Aviv.
Did you notice the news reports over the last few days about some serious shenanigans at a ‘military depot’ near Tehran where apparently 17 people
were killed. It was reported to have been an unidentified explosion at a base of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps. Oh dear, I wonder how that could have happened? I suspect someone forget the no smoking rule and absent mindedly threw a fag end over a chicken wire fence that just happened to contain some materials that could have caused serious damage had they been despatched via aerial delivery to an undisclosed location with a Jewish-sounding address! Pure conjecture of course, but it was interesting that today’s Israeli daily Yediot Aharanot reports that sources in the US believe it was caused by an Iranian militant group who, the Americans claim, are working in cooperation with sources in Israel.
Listening to an Iranian opposition spokesman on Al Jazeera last week I was impressed by his argument that the only way to avoid war in the region is for Israel and others with a lot to lose in the area adjacent to Iran, (such as the Gulf States, Jordan, and even Iraq), to do all they can to help support those attempting to bring down the despicable regime from within. He stressed that most educated Iranians oppose Ahmedinejad’s plans and should the regime be overthrown the moderate Iranian voices would immediately cease funding the likes of Hizbollah and Islamic Jihad and end the development of nuclear facilities designed for military purposes.
Earlier this afternoon I listened to a debate hosted by the excellent Gavin Esler on BBC World in which a number of Arab academics form the Arabian Gulf discussed the ‘Iranian problem’. It was surprising, but very reassuring to learn that the Gulf States are not a great deal less concerned by Iran’s development of nuclear weapons than we are here in Israel. They pointed out that the site of the nuclear development is on a well known fault line that is prone to seismic activity and where there is a history of minor and major earthquakes over the years.
They Arab academics expressed fears that even a minor quake could release radioactivity into the Gulf and cause havoc to the populations in the area. Interestingly, when asked if they felt Israel was being melodramatic in suggesting they could be the potential target of a nuclear attack, three out of four suggested that there were serious grounds for Israel to be concerned and that if they were in Israel’s position it would be an incredibly
tough decision to make as to whether to sit back and wait - letting Iran
continue to close in on the completion of a nuclear warhead – or take unilateral action to neutralise the threat knowing full well that they could
stir up potential havoc in the region?
One point that was made though, and was that in the area adjacent to Iran genuine friends of the Islamic republic are rather thin on the ground these days. The Gulf States can’t stand the Iranian regime, Prime Minister Erdogan of Turkey, who reached out to Iran a couple of years ago and promoted the idea of an Iranian/Turkish/Syrian axis, has realised he made a major boo-boo, with his two so-called ‘new best friends’ both now being returned to international pariah status. Turkey has hurriedly distanced itself from its foreign policy faux pas and has gone very quiet on that subject. Assad in Syria is too busy killing his own people and trying to save his own rather long neck – am I the only person who sees a similarity between Assad and ‘Beaker’ from ‘The Muppet Show’ – and Iraq has no more an uneasy calm at the moment with the nation who not long ago killed more than a million of their own people.
The discussion ended with general consensus amongst the panellists, (who came from various different positions within the political spectrum in the Arab world), that Iran is in a bit of a pickle. Their only real trump card is oil and their control of the Straits of Hormuz, and the only way they might fight back against more sanctions is to impose a military blockade of the Straits, and lock down the transfer of more than 40% of the world’s oil to customers around the globe, thereby forcing up the price to an unbearable $200 a
barrel, a measure which might persuade European and American politicians to ease any sanctions they might impose.
It’s all a rather deadly game of political/nuclear poker, with the trump cards (do they have them in poker, I don’t play that game) being the potential intervention of either or both of Russia and China, who thus far have refused to condemn Iran too harshly, but who might change their tune if it affects their economic interests and creates a security headache for them.
I know I’m hardly Andrew Marr on John Simpson, but I hope this slight insight into the way things are being discussed in this part of the world
is of some interest to you.
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